Just a few short years ago, cellphone sales figures had the power to send jitters though battery metal markets. Today, with annual electric vehicle (EV) sales expected to reach 28 times their current magnitude by 2040 — and each vehicle using more than 10,000 times the lithium of a handheld device — the markets are finding themselves sitting atop very different tectonics.
The booming EV sector has turned battery technology into one of the fastest-growing arenas of modern innovation. The race is on for the most efficient cathode chemistries, and much of the industry is focusing on high-nickel approaches as a way to increase battery density. By 2030, this quest for economy is set to drive a thirteen-fold increase in battery-nickel demand, with an interim deficit through 2024. Still, with clear leaders yet to stand out in the nascent EV marketplace, the advantages of near-term battery production capacity may trump emphasis on optimally energy-efficient or space-saving chemistry. Getting a brand on the road, after all, is crucial for EV manufacturers looking to claim market share. The battery technologies used by the biggest players are likely to dictate standards for the rest of the industry. For battery makers, availability and price of raw materials are chief considerations. Maintaining the balance between cost, competitiveness and creativity will affect which metals they are able and willing to build into their products. In the coming years, a key variable in this area will be the disparity between metal supplier nameplate capacity and actual ability to deliver. Geopolitical uncertainty in Africa is affecting global cobalt availability, as lithium faces technical challenges and the supply of battery-grade nickel hinges on the success of new projects in Indonesia. Meanwhile, storage technologies in the green energy sphere are driving an increase in the use of vanadium — a metal with 10,000 times the abundance of lithium. Although currently too costly to be a threat to the Li-ion paradigm, it may not stay that way for long. Drawing on insights from our Bloomberg Intelligence and BloombergNEF (BNEF) teams, this report covers the most important issues affecting battery metals markets — today and in the future. Read on to find out more.