Introduction

Contents

1. 40 cents becomes the new par in China junk-bond territory

2: Credit risk analysis: Default rate hasn't lost its rising momentum

3. China's secondary bond market: Offshore and onshore volumes continue to fall

4. China primary bond market: Rising trend in subscription

5. Appendix: Key functions

6. Additional charts: Distressed securities and subscription trends

*Disclaimer

In our latest edition of the China Market Insights, we review the condition of high-yield Chinese property developers' offshore bonds and conclude that 40 cents could now serve as a guide to price levels for issuers that may be moving toward defaulting. Our analysis shows China's offshore dollar-bond default rate may rise further in March, with high profile names like Zhenro, Shimao and Logan having interest or principal payments due. We also note secondary bond-market trading volumes continue to fall, while the primary bond market's subscription trend continues to rise.

John Lee
Regional Market Analyst
Bloomberg Intelligence

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