Topics in this section: - Ferrari, cruise automation are spurring bolder corporate moves - BMW, Mercedes move to monetize mobility - Tesla and Ferrari's rich valuation should encourage Porsche IPO - Ferrari value supports Lamborghini spinoff
This analysis is by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Kevin P Tynan and Michael Dean, and contributing analyst Gillian Davis.
Ferrari's valuation -- in-line with top-rated luxury-goods companies -- inspired Aston Martin's 4Q market debut, while General Motors' monetization of Cruise Automation also shows that bold restructuring and innovative ways to showcase hidden luxury and tech divisions can attract lofty multiples vs. EU automakers' mere single-digit ratios.
BMW, Mercedes move to monetize mobility
These analyses are by Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Kevin P Tynan and Michael Dean.
SoftBank's $2.25 billion investment for about 20% of General Motors' Cruise Automation unit was followed by Honda's $2.75 billion injection. Together with Uber, which has a $74 billion post IPO valuation, the investments indicate the potential rewards from autonomous driving (AD) and e-mobility. This will spur innovative ways to showcase and value automakers' tech divisions, such as BMW and Daimler combining their mobility-services businesses. If approved by regulators, the German joint venture will cover car-sharing, ride-hailing, parking, charging and multimodality, creating scale to better compete, while splitting the costs.
Mobility and AD startups raised more than $28 billion in 2017 and, despite falling lower in 2018, it's on track to be even higher in 2019. This is on top of internal investment and M&A.
Tesla and Ferrari's rich valuation should encourage Porsche IPO
Porsche AG, with its well-defined EV strategy, could be valued at over 100 billion euros if VW opts for an IPO of the business, assuming a 15% EV/Ebidtda discount to Ferrari. This shows the opportunity that may await VW (with a group market cap of about 75 billion euros) as it considers corporate restructuring. Our valuation also tops the 60-70 billion euros suggested by Porsche CFO Lutz Meschke and compares with Tesla's valuation of 35 billion euros despite its recent unprofitability.
Porsche AG was sold to VW as part of Porsche SE's restructuring in a deal completed in 2012. Shareholders of holding company Porsche SE may be envious of Ferrari's gravity-defying valuation, as it suggests Porsche AG, the manufacturing arm, is worth eight times the enterprise value VW paid for it in 2009.
Ferrari value supports Lamborghini spinoff
With estimated margins comparable to Ferrari, a Lamborghini IPO could achieve similar luxury multiples, valuing the company at 8.3 billion euros, or about 10% of Volkswagen's market capitalization, despite accounting for just 0.05% of volume. The Lamborghini Urus SSUV will almost double the brand's Ebitda in 2019 vs. 2015, but was a drag on earnings in 2018, given ramp-up and launch costs. Audi will likely disclose Lamborghini's profitability in 2019, highlighting its IPO appeal. Lamborghini's earnings are destined for a further boost from more "limited special series" models carrying price tags of as much as 2 million euros. That's a similar strategy to Ferrari, which trades at a luxury-goods 2020 multiple of 19.2x EV/Ebitda. Lamborghini had 1,643 employees in 2018 vs. Ferrari's 3,851. Ferrari was spun off from FCA in 2015.
