Low hydro and nuclear output boost US emissions
California's power generation by fuel
NYSIO's power generation by fuel
Gas-fired generation in California has been on an upward trend since 2018, reflecting a lack of low-carbon alternatives in the power sector.
This was spurred in part by a 53% reduction in hydropower generation from 2019 to 2021, equivalent to 18 terawatt-hours (TWh), which prompted a 19% rise in gas-fired power generation, equivalent to 16TWh, over the same period.
Insufficient renewable power capacity has been brought online in California, partly as a result of regulatory hurdles and delays related to permitting and interconnections. To boost low-carbon generation capacity, California lawmakers have voted to extend the lifetime of two units of the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant beyond their scheduled retirement in 2024 and 2025.
Nuclear extensions could solve the energy sufficiency problem while keeping emissions down, but they may come at a high cost. A sustainable solution would be to use a combination of effective carbon pricing and streamlined permitting processes to incentivize renewables build. Together, they could break the cycle where low hydro, partially caused by climatic conditions, leads to an uptake of gas burn, which in turn contributes further to climate change.
Meanwhile, gas-fired generation in the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) area has also spiked in 2022 as a result of lower nuclear generation volumes. Nuclear capacity in the NYISO region has shrunk since Indian Point stopped generating electricity on April 30, 2021. With just over 1 gigawatt (GW) of capacity, the plant represented 25% of total nuclear capacity in the NYISO.
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