Global LNG supply

BloombergNEF

North America (U.S.): Supply to almost double over the next five years

Operational plants: Corpus Christi Train 3 was commissioned earlier in March this year. Sabine Pass Train 6 could begin production by December 2021. Larger biennial maintenance events at the Gulf of Mexico export plants are assumed to happen between 2022-23.

Under construction: Calcasieu Pass LNG could begin exports as early as October, with Venture Global targeting to install 8 out of 18 modular trains by 1H 2021. The firm has sales contracts covering 80% of the project capacity and aims to secure the remaining 2m tons before completion. Golden Pass LNG Train 1 is expected to begin production in 3Q 2024, the remaining two trains could come online with a gap of six to eight months between each train. After a redesign, Golden Pass’ capacity was raised to 18m tons a year. Qatar Petroleum issued a tender to charter more LNG vessels to meet its greater shipping requirements from both the Qatar North Field expansion and Golden Pass.

Source: BloombergNEF, Bloomberg Terminal’s AHOY JOURNEY

Russia (Atlantic): Arctic LNG 2 propels Russia to fourth place on suppliers ranking

Russia’s Atlantic Basin capacity is expected to reach 39m tons by 2025. The country will become the fourth largest LNG exporting country by then with the commissioning of new Arctic trains.

Under construction: An ambitious timeline is set for Arctic LNG 2. Novatek expects production to begin in 2023, aiming to mirror Yamal’s on-time and on-budget success. In April, Train 1 was reportedly more than halfway through completion. Shareholders in the project finalized 20-year agreements for equity supply, via transshipment facilities at Murmansk or Kamchatka.

Novatek ordered a total of 21 Arc-7 ice-class LNG vessels for Arctic 2, boosting its ice-class fleet to around 30 vessels. Changing ice patterns could allow Novatek to use the Northern Sea Route all year round, facilitating a larger proportion of volumes to be delivered to Asia from both Arctic 2 and Yamal.

Source: BloombergNEF, Bloomberg’s AHOY JOURNEY . Note: Includes projects targeting FID by 2025, capacity addition is based on nameplate capacity.