Global LNG demand

Mainland China and emerging Asia to drive growth; Europe’s demand to decline after 2026

Global LNG demand growth across 2023 to 2030

 

 

Source: BloombergNEF, Bloomberg’s AHOY JOURNEY. Note: JKT is Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. ‘Others’ includes the Middle East, Americas, Africa, other Asian markets and bunkering. Forecast demand is based on normal weather (the 10-year average) and current futures prices. 

Annual change in LNG demand

 

 

• LNG demand is estimated to reach 560 million tons in 2030, up 36% from 2023, driven by a steady increase in Asian markets. The majority of these markets are planning to raise their gas use to replace coal and lower emissions in the power and industry sectors amid slow-growing or declining domestic gas production. Europe’s LNG demand is forecast to increase over the next two years but decline afterwards. Growing use of LNG in the transport sector as a marine bunker fuel and heavy-duty trucks (mostly in mainland China) is also supporting future global LNG demand growth.

   

• Mainland China is set to be the largest LNG demand market, adding 40 million tons of LNG imports from 2023 to 2030 – a 58% increase. Its decarbonization efforts and expanding gas infrastructure will boost gas consumption, especially in industry and power. The Japan, South Korea, Taiwan region may see total LNG imports increase slightly over the rest of this decade Growth in South Korea and Taiwan, boosted by expected higher gas power demand, is likely to offset the decline in Japan, whose lower gas demand for electricity is set to cut its 2030 LNG imports by 18% compared to 2023.

   

• LNG demand growth in South Asia will be led by India, with industry and city gas consumption increasing due to gas grid expansion. Southeast Asia’s LNG growth will be led by Thailand thanks to higher power and industry consumption amid lower domestic gas output and pipeline imports.

   

• Europe’s LNG demand is likely to increase over 2025-26 as higher gas power demand is supported by coal plant closures, more heating demand assuming normal weather, lower domestic production in the region and as Russian pipeline flows via Ukraine are assumed to come to a halt after 2024. Europe’s LNG imports may decline after 2026 as strong renewables buildout spurs gas demand for power to fall.