By Anna Borisova, BloombergNEF
Gazprom could regain access to restricted capacity on the Opal gas pipeline that runs into Germany, on condition that Russian gas exits the pipeline before reaching the German border with the Czech Republic. This means the company could continue to use nearly all transit capacity into Germany from the Nordstream pipeline.
Poland won a European Union court ruling last week that limits Russia’s control of Opal, a key natural gas link, successfully challenging a European Commission decision from 2016 that allowed Gazprom to use most of the capacity on the pipeline in Germany.
Opal Gastransport, a company operating 80% of the capacity on the Opal pipeline, said the capacity restricted by the EU court decision will be offered back to the market, but this will be limited to an earlier exit point and the flow will not be guaranteed. To be sure, technical limitations on the German network, such as pressure constraints, might not allow for this to happen.
Shippers will be able to flow Russian gas into Opal at the Greifswald interconnection point, and have to off-take it earlier, at Gross Koris instead of at the Brandov point. Gross Koris is one of the two exit points on Opal and it was not affected by the EU decision.
At stake is Gazprom’s broader strategy of reducing its reliance on Soviet-era pipes in the Ukraine to supply its markets in Europe, where it supplies more than a third of the region’s natural gas.
The new 380 gigawatt-hour capacity at Gross Koris will be offered on an interruptible basis in addition to the existing 110 GWh of regulated firm capacity. This means the flow at Gross Koris above guaranteed firm offerings will be subject to the physical conditions on the network.
Historically this interconnection point has seen the flow of as much as 404 GWh. This would be enough to almost fully revert the flow on the affected Greifswald-Brandov section to Gross Koris.
Nominations at exit points of the Opal pipeline
However, this re-routing option might not be a perfect solution for Gazprom. The company might need to move the volumes delivered to Gross Koris back to the Czech Republic in order to accommodate nominations from the customers in Southern and Central Europe with long-term supply agreements containing a clause restricting the location of delivery.
Starting from Sept. 14, when the EU’s decision was implemented, the utilization of Gross Koris increased, but didn’t reach the total offered capacity. The higher gas flow entering the network of transmission system operator Ontras at Gross Koris is most probably nominated for exit from Germany to Czech Republic at Hora Svate Kateriny, which is seeing a physical flow after a long period of idleness. However, the maximum capacity at H.S.K. is about 140 GWh, one of the limitations that Gazprom would have to resolve.
The flow at Hora Svate Kateriny border point
Opal Gastransport also confirmed that they can’t see Gazprom being allowed to sell already booked capacity on affected Brandov point to the secondary market. This limit eliminates the possibility of a locational swap with a third party at Brandov.
