BloombergNEF
Metals markets saw a recovery in 2H of 2020, from the pandemic-induced lows in the first half of the year.
BloombergNEF has revised its near-term (2020-22) steel demand and production forecasts to reflect the most recently available industry statistics.
We estimate that global steel demand remained flat in 2020, as the slowdown in other regions was offset by robust 7% year-on-year (y/y) growth in China. The country’s demand growth will slow to 1% in 2021, as central regulators seek to dampen the red-hot steel market and stimulus spending post-pandemic slows down. Despite China slowing, we project global steel demand will recover 4% y/y in 2021. Most of the growth this year will come in the second half, as post-pandemic stimulus spending spurs industrial and construction activity in Europe, the U.S., India, and other parts of APAC.
Global steel production (primary and secondary) was also flat in 2020. Like demand, declines in other markets were offset by a 6% y/y production growth in China. BNEF projects global steel production will recover to 5% y/y growth in 2021, driven particularly by India, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
