BloombergNEF
EV sales in Europe continued to be strong throughout most of 2020 despite the global pandemic. For the first ten months of 2020, passenger EV sales in Germany, the U.K., France, Italy, and Sweden more than doubled from 2019. Sales are recovering in APAC and the U.S. BNEF’s now forecasts global passenger EV sales will reach 2.7 million in 2020, a 28% y/y increase.
Projected upward revisions have been driven particularly by an expected recovery in China sales after the Lunar New Year. We expect Europe to maintain a strong pace in sales. Depending on what happens in the first 100 days of the incoming Biden administration, we may see an improvement to EV incentives in the U.S. market by 3Q 2021.
Increasing adoption of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) in China’s stationary storage market has increased the share of LFP in the overall mix. Also, China’s 2020 EV sales have been more LFP dominant (lower range models). However, EV sales in Europe drives demand for nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) chemistries. In 2020, we estimate high nickel chemistries (NMC622 and above, NCA and NMCA) accounted for 84% of the total passenger EV sales mix. With continuing strong sales in Europe and a recovery in U.S. sales, we project high nickel chemistries will account for 86% of EV sales this year.
The implications of these EV demand trends and shifting battery chemistry mix on metals include:
